I don't have a whole lot in my stock portfolio, but I'd rather not look at the statement that just arrived in the mail. After dramatic downward swings both domestically and abroad, times are indeed a bit scary.

As you read this, the nation will have elected a new president, and perhaps optimism will return in some small way. Will the new president turn the tide? Regardless of who won the election, I don't think so. People frequently pin their hopes on political figures, but it's often the American people who restore the economy through hard work and innovation.

As times get harder, journalists who still have a job tend to feed on the bad news like sharks on a whale carcass. With that in mind, I set out to find some optimism. I called up consultant Ty Bello and he pointed out that back in May of this year, gas prices were hovering around $4, but now we are seeing $2.70 in some regions. "The gas prices don't just affect us when we are delivering," says Bello, founder of Team@Work LLC, Fort Wayne, Ind, "they also affect everyone we buy products from."

Other veterans such as Tom Ryan, president and CEO of HomeCare Concepts in Farmingdale, NY, have seen the ebbs and flows before, and thus are able to see past the immediate miseries. "I must remain optimistic about this industry, having spent a better part of 30 years as a clinician and a provider," says Ryan. "I have seen the difference we make in the lives of the patients we serve. We know that we are part of the continuum of care that is patient preferred. We also know that if we look beyond the silos, we see that between the Part A and B payments, we remain a far more economic model. I hope to remain a viable player for many years to come, and meet the short- and long-term challenges one battle, or one opportunity, at a time."

As I continued to troll for optimism in tough times, I quickly saw the old resiliency that I had experienced for the past 41/2 years as editor of this magazine. The faith that things will get better is based on hard demographic numbers and sound economics. "Our aging demographic is growing, and so is longevity," says Georgie Blackburn, vice president of government relations for Blackburn's, Tarentum, Pa. "It's a fact that home health care is much more cost-efficient than hospitalization or long-term care. Psychologically, patients do better at home, with their families, pets, and familiar surroundings. Our products and services will be in demand."

"Demographic trends in the United States, combined with an increasingly sincere desire on the part of the government to truly reform certain Medicare benefits and programs, bode well for the future of the HME industry and home care in general," adds Lisa M. Getson, executive vice president of Apria Healthcare, Lake Forest, Calif. "Study after study shows that Americans prefer to be cared for at home if the option is available. Finally, the cost-effectiveness of home care has been well proven and relied upon heavily to save significant acute care and long-term care costs incurred by the private managed care industry for several decades."

These are not pie-in-the-sky sentiments by any means. HME providers sell a product that people need, and will need, more than ever. They sell products that in many cases represent independence and freedom from institutional care. Once the government realizes that home care equals lower costs, the full picture will come into focus, and that is truly a reason for optimism.

Greg Thompson